Among the last batch of official data before the National Day holiday, two are worthy of careful reading by factories: the August balance of payments trade in goods and services released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on September 29, and the "China Balance of Payments for the First Half of 2026" released on the same day. Summary in one sentence: The actual quality of external demand is better than the complaints of purchasing managers, and the rate of return of foreign capital exceeds most people's expectations. How these two sets of data affect your fourth-quarter production scheduling, quotation and customer strategy? Let's take it apart.
Full picture of January and August data: surplus of 640.7 billion yuan, strong goods and stable services
| project | In RMB (100 million yuan) | In US dollars (billions of US dollars) |
|---|---|---|
| Exports of trade in goods and services | 28793 | 4243 |
| Imports of trade in goods and services | 22386 | 3299 |
| trade surplus in goods and services | 6407 | 944 |
| Among them: goods trade surplus | 7890 | 1163 |
| Among them: deficit in trade in services | 1483 | 218 |
The data source is released on the official website of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on September 29, 2026. It can be found atsafe.gov.cnVerify the full text. Several structural information is more important than the total: the trade surplus in goods is 789 billion yuan, which is the absolute main force of the total surplus; the trade deficit in services is 148.3 billion yuan, including a travel deficit of 110 billion yuan and a transportation deficit of 39.2 billion yuan, while telecommunications, computer and information services have a surplus of 6.4 billion yuan, and other commercial services are basically balanced-the service deficit is stable and there is no sign of blood loss. One detail should also be noted: this monthly data is preliminary data and may differ from the quarterly balance of payments statement. The term "preliminary number" is more rigorous when quoting; the travel deficit is mainly due to residents 'outbound consumption, and the transportation deficit corresponds to international logistics payment, which are normal structures and do not need to be over-interpreted.
2. Foreign investment data is the most underestimated signal in this report
The "China's Balance of Payments Report for the First Half of the year" shows that in the first half of the year, foreign equity direct investment was US$63.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55%, of which a net increase in capital reflecting long-term investment willingness was US$43.1 billion; the reinvestment of foreign-invested enterprises in China increased by 31% year-on-year. The meaning of these two rows of figures is that foreign investment not only invests money in, but also keeps the profits earned in domestic production capacity. There are two transmission paths to factories: First, the stability of orders and the proportion of local purchases from factories in China by foreign customers (concentrated in foreign-intensive industries such as electronics, automobiles, and medical equipment) will increase. In the second half of the year, factories supporting foreign supply chains should be felt. Inquiries should be felt; second, the rising demand for supporting industries in the industrial chain has driven the order level of secondary suppliers such as molds, equipment, and accessories.
3. Looking at the PMI in September: external demand is "flat", not "collapsed"
The National Bureau of Statistics announced on September 30 that the September manufacturing PMI was 50.1, returning to the expansion range, but the new export orders index just stopped at the critical line of 50.0. The way to read the two data together is: the fundamentals of exports are still there, the marginal driving force is not strong, and there is a high probability that external demand will "flatten at a high level and the structure will be divided" in the fourth quarter-the rhythm of replenishment of the U.S. line and destocking in Europe will continue to cause Some industries are busy and some industries are idle. The meaning for the factory is not to wait for the wind to come, but to review the customer structure again: those with a single market accounting for more than half will actively supplement the development of the secondary market in the fourth quarter; those with dual channels for foreign customers and major European and American customers will take advantage of the procurement budget window to lock in the framework volume for the first half of next year.
4. Specific implications of the recovery of foreign investment for different types of factories
Put foreign investment data on business and look at it in three categories. The first category is factories that are already supplying foreign brands or their factories in China: increasing capital and expanding production means that the procurement plan is revised upwards. When visiting customers in the fourth quarter, they directly ask for the new material requirements corresponding to the production expansion plan, and strive for a new round of supplier evaluation list. The second category is factories with sufficient capabilities but have not yet entered the foreign-funded system: the proportion of local procurement by foreign-funded factories has increased, releasing opportunities for mold fixtures, accessories, packaging, and secondary parts. Certification system and quality system documents are prepared first, and you will only have a ticket when the window opens. The third category is factories supporting domestic demand: The 31% increase in income reinvestment indicates that foreign investment has left profits in domestic rolling investment. Capital expenditures on both consumption and manufacturing sides are strengthening. Equipment renewal and production capacity matching needs at the domestic trade end are also worth following. The common action of the three types of factories is to include the information of "foreign customers expanding production" in the question list of customer visits in the fourth quarter. Many incremental orders are grown out of such specific conversations.
5. How does the factory use this set of data
- Quotation rhythm:The strong resilience of the surplus means that the RMB lacks a trend depreciation basis. Don't bet profits on "waiting for the exchange rate to come back." It is time to lock the exchange rate, lock the exchange rate, and adjust the price.(There was a special article on the writing of the exchange rate clause last week and will not be expanded here).
- Production schedule rhythm:The peak shipments in the fourth quarter are combined with the freight rate drop window. Orders for the European line are moved at the pace of production, and orders for the U.S. line are locked in advance. The actual booking volume after the holiday is used as the basis for judgment, without industry sentiment.
- Billing period rhythm:Buyers also tend to lengthen the account period to protect themselves when external demand is gone. The larger the customer, the more they must discuss the reconciliation rhythm and credit line in advance, so as not to let peak season sales turn into accounts receivable in the first quarter of next year.
5. Common questions
1. What does this macro data have to do with my small factory with a few cabinets a month?
There are two direct relationships: first, the exchange rate, the strong surplus supports the strong operation of the RMB, so we must be psychologically prepared when converting US dollar quotations into costs; second, the customer budget, the procurement plans of foreign investors and European and American buyers are affected by these data, so we know the direction in advance, and we will not be passive when negotiating prices and volume.
2. Does the new export order of 50.0 mean that orders in the fourth quarter will get worse?
50.0 It is a critical point, not an inflection point, and monthly data cannot be extrapolated. A more practical approach is to focus on your two leading indicators: the order plans of core customers in the fourth quarter and the quality of Canton Fair on-site inquiries that will open on October 15. They are more advanced and closer to you than macro data.
3. Foreign direct investment increased by 55% in the first half of the year. Why are customers around me still reducing their orders?
Total volume and structure are two different things. Foreign capital increase is concentrated on large projects such as electronics, automobiles, and new energy; small and medium-sized buyers are more affected by terminal retail and inventory cycles. What you feel is the channel inventory cycle, and the report reflects the capital expenditure of the industrial chain. The rhythm of the two is not synchronized. On the other hand, supporting orders brought by the commissioning of large projects are the entry point for small and medium-sized factories.
