The suspension period for the United States '"Section 301" port fees for ships built in China and operated in China will be suspended fromExpires on November 9, 2026。On September 23, 209 U.S. and international industry associations jointly requested an extension, but so far there has been no official confirmation of the extension. For factories that will ship to the United States in the fourth quarter, this is not a variable that can wait for news--The place where ships are built has once again become an important variable in the cost of the U.S. line, and shipping routes, shipping space strategies and contract terms must all be arranged according to the new rules.
1. Look at the rules clearly first: who is charged and how much is charged
- China shipowners and operators:The fees for relevant ships entering U.S. ports start from US$50 per net ton and are increased year by year; the cost of a 60,000 dwt bulk carrier per call can reach the order of millions of dollars. The choice of most China background ship owners is not to send such ships to the United States at all;
- China built ships operated by non-China shipping companies:The charge is US$18 per net ton or US$120 per unloaded container, and the vehicle carrier is US$150 per vehicle;
- Caps and exemptions:The same ship can collect up to 5 times per fiscal year; exemption arrangements are made for some ships that come to the United States empty load for export, ships operating in the Great Lakes region of the United States and Canada.
How big is it? In 2024, China builds ships to account for approximately % of the number of non-domestic routes in U.S. ports29%, including about 30% container ships, about 42% bulk cargo ships, and about 23% oil tankers. Major shipping companies around the world generally operate ships built by China shipyards-in other words, this is not a matter for a single shipping company, but the entire U.S. line capacity pool needs to be reconfigured. Source:To PR Research Institute on October 3.
2. The market is already moving: three ongoing transmission chains
- Transfer ships to avoid fees:Industry media reported that in the first week of October, the number of calls by China built ships at the Port of Los Angeles dropped by 32% year-on-year, and the number of calls by non-China built ships increased by 21%. The port was forced to urgently adjust berths and hoisting equipment configurations, creating new congestion. Liner companies are transferring ships built in China to Africa-US routes and reducing the number of calls at US ports.
- Diversion and transfer:According to feedback from freight forwarders, some shipping companies have lengthened the transportation cycle, reduced the number of calls to American ports, or directly avoided American ports-unloading goods at the Port of Manzanillo, Mexico, Prince Rupert, Canada, etc., and then transshipped by land. Into the United States. As the route becomes longer, the timeliness and land transportation costs will change.
- Capacity contraction and expansion:According to statistics from supply chain data platform project44, 67 voyages were cancelled on routes from China to the United States in October, and 71 voyages were cancelled in reverse. Shipping companies announced increases while reducing capacity: CMA Airlines adjusted the sub-Mediterranean FAK rate from mid-October to the end of the month and announced that it would increase again in November. Hapag-Lloyd imposed peak season surcharges of US$600 to US$1000 per TEU on routes such as Southwest Africa, and raised the GRI from the Far East to South America. Source:Global Logistics Consulting October 3、Adcom Freight Market Weekly Report October 1 (U.S. line port fees are scheduled to resume on November 10).
3. Impact on the factory in the fourth quarter: Accounts at three levels
Freight level:After the resumption of charges, there will be upward pressure on spot freight rates on the U.S. line, and shipping companies will transmit it through surcharges. The long-term association space that has been locked has little impact, while spot booking has a great impact.Time-sensitive level:Avoiding ports, diverting routes, and diverting ships will all lengthen the cycle. Congestion in large ports such as Los Angeles may increase in stages, and delivery promises must leave a buffer.Clause level:If there is no transmission mechanism for freight fluctuations, the price increase will be fully absorbed by the factory itself-this is the biggest hidden cost.
4. Four things the factory needs to do now
- First thing: Mark November 9 into the calendar and ship goods according to node.Goods that can be shipped before November 10 should be shipped as early as possible, and the main flight segments will be completed before charges are restored; the first two weeks after the resumption of production after the holiday are a key window for arranging space, so the U.S. line space will be locked as early as possible, so don't wait for November to grab it.
- The second item: Long order quotation plus freight transmission clause.The contract with the United States states that the additional freight costs incurred due to the adjustment of the U.S. ship charging policy will be transmitted according to the surcharge standard actually announced by the shipping company, and both parties agree to check the vouchers. The rules are open, and whoever writes the terms first will not have to bear the burden alone.
- Third thing: Prepare an alternative route.With freight forwarders to two sets of plans: direct link to the United States port of the regular route, and through Mexico, Canada transit alternative route, the two sets of timeliness and total cost are clearly calculated. Factories with alternatives can hold their deadlines steady when congestion increases.
- Fourth: Re-calculate the door-to-door cost of U.S. line customers.For American customers who are DDP, the increase in freight costs will directly eat up your profit margin; take advantage of this policy window to renegotiate the price terms with the customer, change DDP to FOB or CIF, and return the uncertainty of the transportation link to a more professional party.
5. Looking back: Two observation signals
The first is whether the USTR will confirm the extension in early November-a joint letter from 209 industry associations represents the real opposition from the import side of the United States. An extension is not impossible, but factories cannot bet their hopes on policy shifts. The second is the freight rate trend in December-if the recovery of charges is superimposed on the traditional off-season, the U.S. freight rate may be a combination of "rising surcharges and falling basic freight rates." Pay attention to the shipping company's quotation actions in mid-November before deciding on the long-term price lock-up range.Core judgment: The pattern that China ships account for 30% of the U.S. line's transportation capacity cannot be changed in the short term. Policy uncertainty itself is the new normal. Taking the initiative in terms, routes, and rhythm in your own hands is more reliable than predicting policies.
common problems
1. Our cargo ships to European and Japanese shipping companies such as Maersk and ONE. Will it also be affected?
Yes. The fee range covers China built ships operated by non China shipping companies (US$18 per net ton or US$120 per container), while China built ships are common in the fleets of major global liner companies. Shipping companies either transfer ships to avoid fees (reduced capacity and increased freight rates) or pay fees (transmitted through surcharges). Both routes will eventually be reflected in your sea freight.
2. The sea freight has increased. Can American customers bear it?
Look at the terms. Changes in freight rates under FOB/CIF terms are not part of the seller's door-to-door responsibility, and the impact is relatively controllable; factories making DDP are the most vulnerable to injuries. It is recommended to divide into two steps: executed contracts should be implemented as agreed and reputation should be maintained; for unfinished and renewed orders, the freight adjustment mechanism should be included in the contract, and this round of policy window should be used to renegotiate the price terms with the customer.
3. Should we simply switch to the Mayson Clippers or air transport to avoid the uncertainty?
Classification. For products with high value, replenished type, and small size, the timeliness premium of fast sailing and air freight is inherently worth it; hard switching of bulk and low-value products to air freight means a loss. The correct approach for most factories is to focus on shipping, supplemented by alternative solutions, and hold quotations for alternative routes in advance rather than temporarily switching.
--Qihang AI Foreign Trade Research Institute·Let China Intelligent Manufacturing Set sail to the sea| Foreign trade customer consultation: 180-0327-6609
