Four things worthy of attention in the foreign trade circle on September 30 can be summarized in one sentence:The central parity of the RMB was quoted at 6.7411, a slight depreciation of 12 basis points; the SCFI was quoted at 3,686.62 points, ending eight consecutive weeks of gains; the United States launched a double-reverse investigation into China's wooden fence slats; Turkey implemented a final anti-dumping ruling on China's photovoltaic junction boxes.In addition, Australia's final ruling on China's flat rolled products was also announced this week. The following data have official or authoritative sources and can be found with links.
1. Exchange rate: The median price is 6.7411, the spot market is strong
According to data from China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the latest issue of the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar is quoted6.7411, which was revised by 12 basis points from 6.7399 in the previous period; during the same period, the euro was 7.6494, the 100 yen was 4.2750, and the British pound was 8.9172. In terms of the spot market, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 on September 296.7037, up 91 basis points from the previous trading day, closing at 6.7065 in night trading.
The mid-price and spot exchange rate are inverted by about 0.5%, indicating that the market's expectations for the RMB are stronger than the mid-price indicates. The direct meaning for foreign trade factories is:The time when US dollar goods are settled is more valuable than the time when they are quoted. Factories with US dollar positions can settle foreign exchange in layers without having to put a single exchange rate at one time.The quotation side should note that the cumulative appreciation of the RMB has been significant in the past month, and the quotation buffer space for newly signed US dollar orders needs to be re-calculated.
Data source:Announcement of the RMB exchange rate central parity rate of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center.
2. Freight rates: SCFI reported 3,686.62 points, ending eight-week consecutive increases
The latest issue of the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (statistical period ending September 24) Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) Report3686.62 points, down slightly 0.03% from 3,687.83 points in the previous week, ending the previous eight consecutive weeks of gains. During the same period, China's Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was reported at 1,917.68 points, up 1.1% month-on-month-the shipping settlement price lags behind the spot price and is still making up for the increase.
Looking at different routes, the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) was last reported at US$4468/FEU, down about 1% month-on-month, but the internal structure is clearly differentiated:
| routes | Latest spot price (USD/FEU) | previous month |
|---|---|---|
| Shanghai-Los Angeles | 7838 | +2% |
| Shanghai-New York | 10373 | flat |
| Shanghai-Rotterdam | 3485 | -4% |
| Shanghai-Genoa | 3835 | -5% |
The U.S. line resisted falling at a high level and the European line continued to fall, which is the main theme of the current freight rate market. Another noteworthy signal: the number of weekly transit ships in the Suez Canal has rebounded from 41 in week 37 to 48 in week 38, and the effective capacity of the European Line is gradually recovering. This is also the direct reason for the pressure on the European Line freight rates. Data source:Shanghai shipping exchangeDrewry Weekly.
3. Trade remedy: Three China-related cases filed in the same week
- The United States launched a double-reverse investigation into China's wooden fence slats.On September 24, the United States Federation of All Wood Fence Manufacturers filed an application; on September 29, the United States International Trade Commission published a notice of filing in the Federal Register (case No. 701-TA-807,731-TA-1808) pointing to wooden fence slats produced in China (corresponding to tax No. 4404.10.00, etc.). The preliminary ruling must be made within 45 days, i.e. before November 9,2026. Export companies involving wood products and courtyard fences need immediate attention. seeBulletin of the Federal Register.
- Turkey's final anti-dumping ruling on photovoltaic junction boxes against China.On September 23, the Turkish Ministry of Trade issued Announcement No. 2026/29, imposing anti-dumping duties on solar panel junction boxes originating in China: the tax rate for enterprises on the list is 38.23%, and that for other China producers is 57.11%. The measure is valid for five years. Photovoltaic auxiliary material exporting companies need to recalculate Turkish market quotations. Source:Trade Relief Information of Anhui Province Department of Commerce.
- Australia made a double negative final ruling on China's flat rolled products.On September 24, the Australian side announced the final ruling: Baoshan Steel's anti-dumping duty was 16.1%, Baosteel Zhanjiang was 9.4%, Hunan Valin Lianyuan was 26.4%, and all other China exporters were 51.2%. At the same time, it was implemented using a "no-damage price cap" approach. Steel and steel products exporting enterprises should pay attention to checking tax burden allocation with importers. Source:China Trade Relief Information Network.
IV. Three action suggestions for the factory
- Factories making wood products and courtyard supplies: Confirm whether their HS code falls within the scope of the wooden fence and slat investigation. If it is within the scope, evaluate whether to respond to the lawsuit and market hedging plans in the short term. November 9 is the key window.
- Supporting factories in the photovoltaic industry chain: Turkish tax rates directly affect terminal prices. Re-confirm the duty-paid costs with local customers, and discuss the feasibility of transferring origin or adjusting product structure if necessary.
- All US dollar orders in hand: Recalculate foreign exchange settlement expectations based on the latest median price, and update the RMB base price in the quotation system simultaneously to avoid signing contracts after the holiday and using the expired exchange rate.
common problems
1. What is the difference between a middle price and a spot exchange rate? Which one should I see for foreign exchange settlement??
The median price is the benchmark reference price published daily by the foreign exchange trading center and is used for interbank market pricing; the actual settlement of foreign exchange by the factory is based on the bank's spot foreign exchange bid price, which is usually subtracted from the spot market price. When making financial budgets, the median price can be used to estimate the large account, and the spot closing price on the day before the actual settlement of foreign exchange plus the bank spread shall be used.
2. Does the decline in SCFI mean that freight rates will enter the downward channel??
This period only fell slightly by 0.03%, which is a high consolidation rather than a trend reversal. At present, the U.S. line is still resisting the decline due to pre-holiday rush and ship operators 'cabin control. The European line is weakening due to the recovery of capacity on the Suez line. The two routes are in opposite directions and cannot be judged by using a comprehensive index. Shipments in the fourth quarter should be planned separately by route, rather than waiting for freight rates to drop in general terms.
3. How does a factory know if it is involved in a certain double reverse investigation??
Three-step confirmation: first, compare the product range description and customs tariff number in the announcement; second, check whether there are exports to the United States (or to the country involved) with corresponding tariff number in your export declaration record; third, consult a customs broker or trade relief professional lawyer. If within the scope, whether or not to respond to the lawsuit directly affects subsequent tax rates, and enterprises that do not respond to the lawsuit are usually subject to the highest tax rate.
--Qihang AI Foreign Trade Research Institute·Let China Intelligent Manufacturing Set sail to the sea| Foreign trade customer consultation: 180-0327-6609
