Core conclusions:Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange showed that on September 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) reported 3,662.18 points, rising for the seventh consecutive week; Southeast Asian routes rose by 13.1% in a single week, freight rates exceeded 1,000 yuan, and freight rates exceeded 1,000 yuan. The freight rates of the U.S. East route exceeded 10,000 US dollars per container, and the NCFI of the Thailand-Vietnam route rose 8.9% in a single week (reported at 2,607.4 points on August 28). The direct conclusion for the factory is that logistics costs are changing from "negligible items" to "major items that determine the success or failure of orders." For orders where freight accounts for more than 5% of the value of goods, the quotation logic must be recalculated. Data source:Shanghai shipping exchange.
This round of price increases is not a problem for a single route. In the first eight months, my country's exports were 20.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%(General Administration of Customs of China), the outbound volume itself is at a high level; during the peak season, the transportation capacity is intensively consumed, and some routes are detoured, and the freight rate is pushed up step by step. There are four most taboo words in the price increase season: ship first, settle accounts later.
1. Where has freight rates increased in the past seven weeks
- Composite index:SCFI reported 3,662.18 points on September 11, rising for the seventh consecutive week, and the trend has not stopped yet.
- Southeast Asia routes:A single-week increase of 13.1% and freight rates exceeded 1,000 yuan, which is one of the strongest increases in this round.
- Eastern US Route:Freight rates have exceeded US$10,000 per container, and the cost of a single container has risen to a higher level.
- Thailand-Vietnam routes:NCFI reported 2,607.4 points on August 28, up 8.9% in a single week.
Taken together, these four items show that price increases occur regionally and simultaneously. For factories with long market layout, it is difficult to reduce costs by "changing routes". They can only find solutions based on the pricing and shipping pace.
2. A table can clearly see the latest level of major routes
| Indicator or route | latest level | Changes or explanations |
|---|---|---|
| SCFI Composite Index | 3662.18 points (September 11) | Rise for seventh consecutive week |
| Southeast Asia routes | Weekly increase of 13.1% | Freight rates exceed 1,000 yuan |
| East US Route | exceeded US$10,000 per cabinet | The cost of single cabinet has increased significantly |
| Thailand-Vietnam Route (NCFI) | 2607.4 points (August 28) | Weekly increase of 8.9% |
| Exports in the first 8 months | 20.17 trillion yuan | Year-on-year increase of 14.6% |
3. Freight to goods value ratio: an indicator that must be recalculated
Many factories calculate costs and are accustomed to treating freight as a line in the financial account rather than a part of the quotation. After seven consecutive increases in freight rates, this habit will directly eat into profits.
The method is simple: divide the freight per container by the value of the container to calculate the "freight to the value of the goods" ratio. This ratio is within 5%, which can be digested internally; if it exceeds 5%, it will have to be dealt with in terms of the quotation or contract terms; if it is close to or exceeds double digits, the order will basically be apportioned through negotiation, otherwise each order will lose a single order. It is recommended that finance and business work together to reorder all orders under negotiation and making according to this ratio.
One more reminder: The fluctuations in freight rates in peak seasons are not only reflected in the sea freight itself, but also names such as peak season surcharges and fuel surcharges. When calculating, we should calculate based on the "full-link arrival cost", rather than just looking at the single figure quoted by the shipping company, otherwise there will always be a gap between the budget and the actual bill.
4. Three freight terms to be included in the quotation
- Clarify the freight carrier and the effective time point.Whether it is the ex-factory price, FOB or CIF price must be clearly stated on the quotation sheet to avoid pulling accounts due to fluctuations in freight rates after the ship leaves.
- Add a freight rate fluctuation clause.Agreed on a mechanism to re-negotiate when freight rates rise and fall more than a certain range to distribute part of the uncertainty to the other party.
- Clarify the exemption period and the ownership of detention fees.During the peak season, ports are congested and inspections increase. Whoever will bear the detention fees must be specified in advance, and we must not wait for the bill to arrive before discussing it.
5. Three cabin locking actions for shipment before the festival
The holiday is the time when the cabin is most tight. Finding a cabin temporarily is not only expensive, but may not be able to accommodate it.
- Lock the cabin in advance.Confirm the ship name, voyage, customs cut-off time and sailing date with the freight forwarder, and submit the oral confirmation in writing.
- Reserve buffer.Leave a few more days in the delivery period of external reporting to avoid default on customers due to dumping of the counter.
- Prepare alternatives.Prepare two freight forwarding channels on the same line, so that you can quickly switch when the cabin space is tight.
One more thing to say: the relationship with freight forwarders should be managed as a long-term resource. During the upward freight rate period, customers who usually have stable cooperation and punctual payment are the ones who give priority to receiving space, and the cost of temporary cramming is the highest.
6. Time and insurance issues caused by bypassing the Cape of Good Hope
The situation in the Red Sea and the Middle East has caused some routes to bypass the Cape of Good Hope, extending the voyage by 10 to 20 days. There are three impacts on the factory: first, the delivery period must be re-reported to the public, second, the capital occupation period will become longer, and third, the insurance clauses must be reviewed again-conventional maritime insurance usually lists war as an exception, and before shipment, it must be confirmed with the freight forwarder and insurer whether the coverage covers the current route risks, and do not regard "thinking there is insurance" as a real guarantee.
7. Three issues that factory owners are most concerned about
Question 1: Will freight rates continue to rise? Should we stock up on shipping space now?
No one can give a firm forecast. SCFI has risen for the seventh consecutive week and the trend is still there. In this market, the right thing to do is not to bet on direction, but to write uncertainty into the contract: use freight rate fluctuation clauses, lock-up agreements and buffer delivery dates to hedge, rather than gamble by hoarding space.
Question 2: Freight charges have increased so high, can we directly increase the price with customers?
Look at the ratio of freight to goods value. Customers are usually reluctant to accept price increases if the proportion exceeds 5%. At this time, what is more realistic is to optimize packaging, increase the packing rate, and combine batches for shipment; if the proportion exceeds 5% or even higher, there is sufficient reason to negotiate and allocate in proportion, provided that you can come up with a calculated account.
Question 3: Are factories that make small cross-border orders more affected?
Yes. In the first eight months, exports were 20.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.6%. The market is rising, but the value of each container of small orders is low and the proportion of freight is naturally high. The price increase has more obvious erosion on the profits of small orders. It is recommended to use LCL or overseas warehouse pre-stock for such orders, and use bulk shipment to dilute the logistics cost of a single item.
8. Conclusion and action recommendations
SCFI is 3,662.18 points, rising for the seventh consecutive week. This figure itself does not determine your profit. What determines your profit is whether you include it in the cost of each order. One thing you can do today: pick up the order you are discussing at hand, calculate the ratio of freight to the value of goods per bill, and pick out the items that exceed 5% to re-quote or re-sign the terms. If you want to evaluate your factory's overseas plans, you can contact Qihang AI (telephone 180-0327-6609).
This article was written by Qihang Zhilian Trade Research Institute and was released on September 26, 2026. The data is as of the latest release of General Administration of Customs of China.
