Direct answer: ASEAN has firmly established itself as the largest trading partner of China. The key action to accept orders from Southeast Asia is not to rush to set up factories in the sea, but to first implement the three matters of certificate of origin, tariff calculation and logistics channels--In the first eight months of 2026, the import and export between my country and ASEAN was 5.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase20.6%, ranking first among all trading partners; during the same period, growth in Latin America was 14.5%, and growth in Africa was 18.5%. The total number of countries jointly building the Belt and Road Initiative was 17.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.9%(General Administration of Customs of China）。In the first seven months, trade with ASEAN was 5.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 20%.
More importantly, the rules are loosening: version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has been signed and will be implemented soon, and RCEP and free trade agreement certificates of origin exported to Myanmar and Cambodia starting from September 16, 2026 can be self-printed. The superposition of the two things is equivalent to opening a channel for China factories to speed up customs clearance with low tariffs. Whether it can be used depends on whether you have prepared documents in advance.
Why ASEAN ranks first: It is not a substitution, but an spillover of division of labor
ASEAN was 5.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.6%. During the same period, the EU was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1%, and the United States was 2.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3%. The gap lies in the growth rate, not the base. Behind this is regional division of labor: complete machine factories complete assembly in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, and middle parts, equipment, molds and auxiliary materials are exported from China, forming a stable structure of "China supplies intermediate products and Southeast Asia produces finished products."
What it means for the factory: Southeast Asian factories may already appear on your customer list, but you still treat it as a small order. The purchasing characteristics of such customers are continuous, predictable, and high requirements for accompanying documents. Whoever can complete the documents and ensure the delivery date is stable will be able to change from a trial order to a main supplier.
RCEP and Certificate of Origin: Where to Save Money
Starting from September 16, 2026, RCEP and free trade agreement certificates of origin exported to Myanmar and Cambodia can be self-printed. Companies no longer need to go to the counter and issue certificates faster. This piece of paper directly determines the tax rate applicable to customers when customs clearance, and also directly affects the competitiveness of your quotation. Version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has been signed and is about to be implemented, and certainty at the rule level is improving.
There are three implementation actions: first, the product HS code and the agreed tax rate comparison table can be compiled, and two sets of prices with and without certificates can be given when quoting; second, the regional value components in the rules of origin should be clearly calculated and the source of raw materials should be prepared in advance; third, the documents and financial posts should be specially trained. After the certificate is self-printed, the responsibility for mistakes lies with the enterprise itself, and the cost of rework is much higher than training.
Logistics leg: Pinglu Canal and freight rates are at the same time
On September 16, 2026, the Pinglu Canal will be opened to traffic, and the direct river-sea route from Nanning Port to Vietnam Can Tho Port will be launched for the first time. The voyage will be shortened by more than 560 kilometers, and logistics costs are expected to drop by 18% to 30%(CCTV News）。As a result, factories in the southwest region have a direct channel without transit; factories facing South America also have reference. After the Peruvian Ciancai Port was put into operation in November 2024, the direct flight time from South America to Asia has been shortened from 35 days to 25 days. The number of South American buyers on the 137th Canton Fair has increased significantly.
Freight rates are rising during the same period. Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange showed that on September 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) reported 3,662.18 points, rising for the seventh consecutive week. Southeast Asian routes rose by 13.1% in a single week to exceed 1,000 yuan, and the freight rate on the U.S. East route exceeded 10,000 US dollars per container (Shanghai shipping exchange）。When freight rates are high, the logistics solution itself is a profit: if you can travel directly, you don't need to transfer, if you can LCL, you don't need to make a whole container, and if you can lock the cabin in advance, you don't need to book temporarily.
Overview of key market data
| Trading partners/indicators | scale | year on year |
|---|---|---|
| ASEAN (first 8 months) | 5.95 trillion Yuan | +20.6% |
| ASEAN (first 7 months) | 5.14 trillion Yuan | +20% |
| EU | 4.2 trillion Yuan | +8.1% |
| US | 2.76 trillion Yuan | +1.3% |
| Jointly build the Belt and Road Countries | 17.74 trillion yuan | +15.9% |
| China-Africa trade (first 8 months) | US$273.946 billion | +23.3% |
4 actions to accept orders from Southeast Asia
- Make up the accompanying documents: Complete the certificate of origin, test report, packing list and compliance statement once, reuse each order after that, and don't reassemble the materials every time.
- Make two sets of quotations: Separate certificates and non-certificates. By putting the tariff difference on the table, price negotiations will have a basis and price reductions will be avoided in the later period.
- Select the right channel: During freight rate fluctuations, direct and LCL are given priority. SCFI has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and Southeast Asian routes have increased by 13.1% in a single week. Don't use the default logistics plan.
- Follow the customer: If a customer has set up a factory in Southeast Asia, first set up a sample warehouse or after-sales point in the local area, which is lighter than directly investing in a production line. After verifying the needs, we will discuss deeper layout.
3 issues that factory owners are most concerned about
Question 1: Should I set up a factory in Southeast Asia?
Let's first look at customer and order concentration. ASEAN's import and export was 5.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.6%. The market is expanding, but setting up a factory requires three accounts: employment, supply chain support and origin compliance. The lighter approach is to set up warehousing or after-sales points first to ensure delivery timeliness; if the customer has set up production lines in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, and your share accounts for a high proportion of its procurement, then evaluate and move the assembly process out. If the order is reversed, money can easily be pressed on the production line.
Question 2: What is self-service printing of certificate of origin useful to me?
Directly affect customers 'customs clearance costs and arrival time. RCEP and FTA certificates of origin exported to Myanmar and Cambodia starting from September 16, 2026 can be self-printed. You can issue the certificates on the same day and ship them on the same day. The superimposed version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will be implemented soon, and the rules of this channel will be clearer. The action is to create a table for the certificate type and product HS code, which will be called directly when the salesperson quotes, without having to ask the document post every time.
Question 3: Should Africa and the Middle East do it together?
Data supports doing it together, but accounts must be calculated separately. In the first eight months of 2026, China-Africa trade was US$273.946 billion, an increase of 23.3%, of which exports to Africa increased by 25.8%, and imports from Africa increased by 19%. Starting from May 1, 2026, China will implement zero tariffs on all tax items with 53 African countries that have established diplomatic relations. There is also a reference for the direction of the Middle East. Yiwu's exports to the Middle East in 2025 will be 109.37 billion yuan, an increase of 22.2%. For new markets, it is recommended to conduct samples and small orders testing from 2 to 3 countries first before talking about production capacity tilt.
Conclusion and action recommendations
Southeast Asia is not an "alternative market," but an increase closest to China and with relatively clear rules: imports and exports are 5.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.6%. Version 3.0 of the Free Trade Zone is about to be implemented, and certificates of origin can already be self-printed. Do a solid job in the four matters of certificate of origin, tariff calculation, logistics plan, and accompanying documents, and you will have a share in the growth rate of 20.6%. Do documents and small order testing first, and then talk about setting points and production capacity. The pace will be much more stable. If you want to evaluate your factory's overseas plans, you can contact Qihang AI (telephone 180-0327-6609).
This article was written by Qihang Zhilian Trade Research Institute and was released on September 21, 2026. The data is as of the latest release of General Administration of Customs of China.
