Direct answer: Among the import and export plates of 34.78 trillion yuan in the first eight months, what is really worthy of vigilance and grasping is not "how much has increased", but the source of growth has changed-the growth rate of imports has exceeded that of exports for six consecutive months. The proportion of private enterprises rose to 56.9%, and ASEAN became the largest trading partner with 5.95 trillion yuan. Data released by General Administration of Customs of Chinaon September 8 showed that in the first eight months of 2026, my country's import and export of goods trade was 34.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase17.6%; Among them, exports were 20.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.6%, and imports were 14.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 22%(General Administration of Customs of China）。In August, imports and exports in a single month were 4.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.8%, of which exports increased by 18.6% and imports increased by 21.7%.
For factory owners, these three things are more worth watching than the total amount: imports are running faster than exports, which means that domestic production is replenishing materials and equipment, and whoever has a stable supply chain has bargaining space; Exports are no longer supported by the single market in Europe and the United States, and ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa are receiving orders; the share of private enterprises continues to expand, which means that most of the fast-moving group in their peers have already moved through the channel structure and product structure.
What does the data say: It's not a general increase, it's a structural shift
Looking at 34.78 trillion yuan apart, three trade methods are moving at the same time. General trade was 20.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.5%, processing trade was 6.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 26.4%, and bonded logistics was 6 trillion yuan, an increase of 42.3%. Bonded logistics has the highest growth rate, indicating that customers are increasingly in need of the service of "placing goods in bonded areas for collection, distribution, and re-shipment." This is a signal to factories that do cross-border delivery: buyers want not only the ex-factory price, but also the certainty of reaching your warehouse door.
Looking at trading partners: ASEAN is 5.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.6%, making it the largest trading partner; the EU is 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1%; the United States is 2.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3%; The total number of countries jointly building the Belt and Road Initiative is 17.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.9%, including an increase of 14.5% for Latin America and 18.5% for Africa, achieving dual import and export growth with 112 countries and regions. Europe and the United States are stocks, and ASEAN and the Belt and Road Initiative are increments. This is basically the topographic map of foreign trade in 2026.
Signal 1: Imports have outperformed exports for six consecutive months, and the procurement logic has changed.
The monthly growth rate of imports exceeded exports for six consecutive months. In August, imports increased by 21.7% and exports increased by 18.6%. The import side runs faster, which usually corresponds to two things: the production side is replenishing raw materials and intermediate products, and the equipment updates and production line renovations are spending money. The import and export of mechanical and electrical products was 19.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.9%. Among them, the import and export of integrated circuits increased by 68.1%, and computers and parts increased by 60.5%. These two categories are typical intermediate inputs, bought for processing and then sold.
What it means for the factory: If your customer is a downstream complete machine factory and their procurement is moving towards "small batches, multiple batches, and fast delivery", what you need to prepare is flexible production capacity and shorter proofing cycles; If you are a parts factory, fluctuations in the delivery dates of imported materials will directly eat up profits. Lock prices and diversify suppliers must be done in advance, and don't wait until the line is suspended to make up.
Signal 2: Private enterprises account for 56.9%, and competition enters the level of organizational efficiency
In the first eight months, the import and export of private enterprises was 19.79 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.6%, accounting for 56.9% of the total import and export value, making them the largest foreign trade entity; the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises was 10.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.1%. There are nearly 80,000 foreign-invested enterprises with import and export records. Looking at the two sets of numbers together: foreign investment is increasing the number of shares in the China market, and private enterprises are accelerating their voyage. The two will meet head-on on the same batch of orders.
This means that pure price wars are no longer the main method of competition. The same is the quotation, and foreign-funded enterprises can produce complete compliance documents, certification lists and delivery records; if private enterprises only compete for unit prices, they can easily be replaced. What really opens up the gap is the part outside the quotation: whether it can provide test reports, whether it can cooperate with customers to conduct supplier reviews, and whether customers can provide new plans in a short period of time when changing money.
Signal 3: Mechanical and electrical products push the export structure to the technical end
The export of mechanical and electrical products was 12.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.9%, accounting for 64% of the total export value, and increased for 18 consecutive months; among them, automobile exports increased by 47.1%, industrial robots increased by 13%, ships increased by 29.8%, and electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics The import and export of the "three new products" increased by 40% year-on-year. Mechanical and electrical products accounted for 64%, indicating that the shelves exported by China have been changed from daily necessities to equipment and components.
The most realistic reminder for traditional factories is: You don't have to do emerging industries yourself, but you have to do supporting emerging industries. A factory that makes sheet metal, injection molding, wire harnesses, and precision processing can be brought out along the industrial chain as long as the accuracy and delivery stability are achieved at the level recognized by the complete machine factory; in turn, the products are highly substitutable, without certification and drawing capabilities, it is almost inevitable that prices will be suppressed.
Overview of main data
| indicators | scale | year on year |
|---|---|---|
| Import and export of goods trade (first 8 months) | 34.78 trillion yuan | +17.6% |
| export | 20.17 trillion yuan | +14.6% |
| import | 14.61 trillion yuan | +22% |
| export of mechanical and electrical products | 12.91 trillion yuan | +21.9% |
| import and export of private enterprises | 19.79 trillion yuan | +17.6% |
| import and export to ASEAN | 5.95 trillion Yuan | +20.6% |
3 issues that factory owners are most concerned about
Question 1: The total amount is rising, why can't I feel it on my side?
Because growth is divided into industries. Exports of mechanical and electrical products were 12.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.9%, accounting for 64% of exports, while traditional consumer goods did not grow at this rate. If your product is not on the chains of electromechanical, automobile, ship, and robot, it is normal that you cannot get the increment. The feasible action is to take a step forward in the chain: make matching parts for these industries, or turn individual items into a complete solution, allowing customers to manage less of a few suppliers.
Question 2: Should we go to ASEAN now to set up a presence?
Look at the data before deciding. ASEAN's imports and exports were 5.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 20.6%, ranking among the largest trading partners; version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has been signed and will be implemented soon. RCEP and free trade agreement certificates of origin exported to Myanmar and Cambodia starting from September 16, 2026 can be self-printed. If the customer has already set up factories in Vietnam, Indonesia, or Thailand, it is natural to follow the customer to set up assembly or storage points; if the customer is still in China, first make out the certificate of origin and tariff calculations, and clearly calculate the cost account before discussing implementation.
Question 3: Should I follow the three new products and green products?
The import and export of the "Three New Products" increased by 40% year-on-year; the "China Green Trade Development Report (2026)" shows that my country's green trade import and export in 2025 will be US$802.251 billion, ranking first in the world; green products on the 140th Canton Fair accounted for 26%, a record high. Whether you can follow or not depends on whether your existing production line can be transformed: it is much more realistic to convert factories that make structural parts, wire harnesses, and casings into new energy supporting facilities than opening a new category from scratch. Green and certification are not packaging concepts, but are mandatory items on the customer review form.
Conclusion and action recommendations
Connecting the three sets of figures: imports are running faster than exports, indicating that domestic production is running; private enterprises account for 56.9%, indicating that the party with flexible mechanisms is taking the share; ASEAN is 5.95 trillion yuan, and the Belt and Road Initiative is 17.74 trillion yuan., indicating that the market's focus is moving south and west. The three things the factory needs to do are very specific: first, the customer structure is changed from a single market to 2 to 3 markets in parallel; second, the certification, testing, and compliance documents are filled in, which is to get the tickets for new customers; Third, make delivery stability into quantifiable indicators, such as delivery date achievement rate and batch pass rate, and use data to negotiate prices with customers instead of just unit price. If you want to evaluate your factory's overseas plans, you can contact Qihang AI (telephone 180-0327-6609).
This article was written by Qihang Zhilian Trade Research Institute and was released on September 19, 2026. The data is as of the latest release of General Administration of Customs of China.
