1. Macro data and policies: Strong growth in the foreign trade market
1. Foreign trade grew by 17.6% in the first eight months, with double-digit growth for four consecutive months
General Administration of Customs of ChinaData released on September 8 showed that in the first eight months of 2026, the total import and export value of my country's goods trade34.78 trillion yuan, year-on-year growth17.6%。Among them, exports were 20.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.6%; imports were 14.61 trillion yuan, an increase of 22%.
In August, imports and exports in a single month were 4.65 trillion yuan, with exports and imports increasing by 18.6% and 21.7% respectively.Import growth exceeded exports for six consecutive months, indicating that domestic demand continues to pick up.
Structural highlights:
- Exports of mechanical and electrical products were 12.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.9%, accounting for 64% of the total export value, maintaining growth for 18 consecutive months
- Private enterprises accounted for 56.9%, ranking first among foreign trade entities
- Import and export growth with 112 countries and regions (17 more than year-on-year)
- The trade value of ASEAN, EU, and the United States increased by 20.6%, 8.1%, and 1.3% respectively
Impact on businesses:The foreign trade market continues to improve, and private enterprises have strong vitality. The export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products and high value-added products is significant. It is recommended that traditional manufacturing companies accelerate product upgrades and improve bargaining power.
Sources: General Administration of Customs of China, Xinhua Agency, CCTV. com
2. Pilot certificate of origin in the four provinces and regions of Shandong, Shanxi, Mongolia and Ningxia "cross-province mutual recognition"
The Customs and the CCPIT have achieved "one-time verification and mutual recognition of results" across departments and provinces, and the certificate issuance time has been reduced by 1-3 days, making it the country's first cross-province and cross-department origin information sharing pilot.
Significance for small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises:Shorten the order fulfillment cycle, enjoy the tariff dividends of the FTA more quickly, and reduce the cost and time for enterprises to apply for certificates. Export enterprises in the four provinces and regions of Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia can focus on it.
Source: Economic Daily
3. Expand imports and continue to increase
China has implemented zero tariffs on 63 countries, and the overall tariff level has been reduced to 7.3%. Starting from May 1, zero tariffs will be imposed on 53 African countries that have established diplomatic relations.
The 9th CIIE will open in November. More than 2000 companies from more than 100 countries and regions have signed up to participate in the exhibition to upgrade the "Asia-Africa Product Zone."
Source: Consumer Daily. com
2. International economic and trade frictions and early warning
Recently, many countries have launched trade remedy investigations against China, and relevant export companies need to pay close attention to the response window:
| country/region | measures | products involved | time node |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | double-reverse investigation | truck and bus tire | The case was filed on August 31 and the preliminary ruling was made within 90 days |
| Brazil | anti-dumping investigation | Toughened glass for home appliances | The case was filed on September 1 |
| India | Anti-absorption final ruling | Glufosinate ammonium and its salts | Anti-dumping duty 2998→5004 US $/ton |
| Mexico | anti-dumping Final Cut | Hot rolled steel from China and Vietnam | Approximately US$0.305 -0.309/kg |
| Eurasian Economic Union | Final ruling on safeguard measures | tinplate | 25.2% in the first year, decreasing year by year over the three-year period |
| Vietnam | Sunset review no longer taxes | Sorbitol in China, India, Indonesia | Effective November 23 (positive) |
| Madagascar | safeguards investigation | Shelled rice/finely milled rice/broken rice | The case was filed on August 31 |
Escalation of the U.S. -Canada tariff war (third-party market impact):
Canada's retaliatory tariffs of 15%-50% on approximately US$20 billion in U.S. goods took effect on September 9, covering steel, aluminum, dairy products, electronics, etc. Previously, the United States imposed a 50% tariff on equivalent Canadian goods on August 22.
Enlightenment for China exporters:In the context of the restructuring of the North American supply chain, Canada is accelerating market diversification, and re-exporting or deploying the Canadian market needs to assess the risk of tariff transmission.
Sources: CCPIT Guangxi Branch Warning Express, China Daily
3. Shipping logistics: Freight rates have risen for six consecutive years, the U.S. line is strong and the European line is weak
SCFI Composite IndexSeptember 4th Daily3590.05 points, rose for the sixth consecutive week, hitting a new high since July 2024;CCFI 1,837.01 points.
Freight rates for each route:
- US line:The US West was US$7242/FEU (up 4.3% weekly) and the US East was US$10324/FEU (up 2.8% weekly); the market reference price in the first half of September was US$7500 -7700 and the US East was approximately US$11000/FEU
- European Line:Shanghai-European Basic Port is US$2643/TEU, a cumulative decrease of about 13% from the end of July; the reference price of 40-foot containers in Europe is US$3,600 - 4,200. The peak season is over and the ship operator's control cabin is insufficient, and the decline may accelerate
- Southeast Asia Line:The weekly increase reached 12%, significantly affected by port congestion
Reason for the rise:Concentrated shipments before the National Day Golden Week + Typhoon caused port congestion/port jump + limited Panama Canal capacity. The shipping company has planned to control the cabin after the Golden Week, and there is an expectation that the freight rate will fall after the holiday.
Shipping suggestions:Book emergency goods as early as possible before the holiday and lock prices; European goods can wait and see appropriately.
Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Shipping Information Network
4. Exchange rate dynamics: RMB is operating strongly
September 9, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar6.7769, an increase of 35 basis points from the previous trading day; the cumulative appreciation during the year was approximately 3.4%, the highest level since February 2023.
Median parity of major currencies:Euro 7.8397, Japanese yen (100) 4.3774, British pound 9.1308, and Hong Kong dollar 0.86418.
Impact on exporting enterprises:
- A strong RMB compresses profits in low-margin industries (textiles and garments, furniture, small commodities)
- Some companies tried to raise prices by about 4%, but faced customers turning to Southeast Asia for price comparisons.
- High value-added products such as electromechanical and "new three samples" have strong bargaining power and are less affected.
Operation suggestions:In the short-term or continuous two-way fluctuations, export collection may be considered to settle foreign exchange in batches and use forward currency locking tools to hedge risks.
Source: China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, China Securities Network
5. Summary of today's key points
- Strong foreign trade market:In the first eight months, the growth was 17.6%, and imports grew particularly rapidly, growing with 112 partners.
- Policy dividends:The four provinces and regions recognize each other's certificates of origin, and the issuance is 1-3 days faster. Relevant export enterprises can pay attention to it.
- Friction warning:Canada has filed a double anti-truck and bus tires against China, and Brazil has filed an anti-dumping case against China's home appliance tempered glass. Enterprises involved should pay attention to the response window
- Freight rate differentiation:The U.S. line has risen for six consecutive years, while the European line has fallen continuously. It is advisable to book early for pre-holiday shipments.
- Strong exchange rate:The central parity of the RMB is 6.7769, and low-margin export companies pay attention to locking up foreign exchange
The data in this article comes from official channels such as General Administration of Customs of China, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, and China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, and authoritative media reports, and the information is true and verifiable. Qihang AI is compiled and released for reference only by foreign trade companies.