Core conclusions:On October 16, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology issued Announcement No. 48 of 2026. It is proposed to add 40 technologies from three fields: artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and photovoltaics to the “List of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export in China”. Among these, 14 technologies are prohibited from export, while 26 are restricted from export. Comments are solicited until November 15. On the same day, the central rate of the RMB was reported at 6.7220, an increase of 33 basis points. The SCFI index was reported at 3679.58 points, showing a slight increase for two consecutive weeks.
1. 40 new technologies are proposed to be included in the export control list. Companies in the solar energy and AI industries should first review this list.
According to Announcement No. 48 of 2026 issued by the Ministry of Commerce, this public consultation involves 40 technologies: 23 in the field of artificial intelligence (including large-scale models, intelligent agents, computing clusters, and information processing-related technologies); 5 in the field of biomedicine (cell and gene therapy, small nucleic acid drugs, and technologies related to pathogenic microorganisms); and 12 in the field of photovoltaics (technologies related to polysilicon production, silicon wafer manufacturing, and battery production). Among these, 14 technologies are prohibited from being exported, including technologies for producing perovskite and tandem battery components; 26 technologies are subject to export restrictions, including polysilicon production technologies with a capacity of 30,000 tons per year or more.
There are three points that factories should be aware of. First, what is managed is the technology, not the products themselves—the announcement clearly states that “products manufactured using relevant technologies are not subject to this regulation.” Therefore, the normal export of photovoltaic modules and battery chips will not be affected. Second, key and core equipment used to implement these technologies also fall within the scope of this regulation. Companies that plan to establish factories overseas, or those involved in the export of complete production lines, as well as those granted technical licenses, need to make decisions before signing any agreements. Third, technologies that have been made available through open source or academic publications, and thus entered the public domain, are not subject to this regulation. The announcement also includes temporary regulations for pre-export registration: situations such as transferring ownership of technology to foreign entities, allowing domestic companies to use technology abroad, or changing the ownership or control of technology to foreign parties require registration through the unified platform of the Ministry of Commerce.
The announcement states that the information required to be registered before export includes basic details about the technology exporter and the recipient, the countries or regions where the technology will be exported, the technology itself, its intended use, and the estimated value of the exports. The registration process is conducted through the unified platform for technology trade management within the Ministry of Commerce’s system. In other words, registration is not equivalent to approval, but it serves as a necessary step to ensure compliance before any subsequent revisions to the list of permitted technologies take effect. For companies in the photovoltaic industry who are pursuing overseas production capacity cooperation or equipment export projects, it is recommended to schedule the registration process separately from the contract signing process, so that unnecessary delays can be avoided after the contract is signed. Feedback sessions will close on November 15th.The original announcement and the speaker’s response can be found on the Ministry of Commerce’s official website.）。
II. The central rate of the RMB is reported as 6.7220. Over the week, the rate has increased by 110 basis points.
Data from the China Foreign Exchange Trade System shows that on October 16, the central rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported as 6.7220. This represents a rise of 33 basis points compared to the previous trading day, bringing the total increase for the week to 110 basis points. On the same day, the onshore RMB closed at 6.6868, representing an increase of 48 basis points over the previous trading day. The central rate and the spot exchange rate both strengthened during this period. For foreign trade factories that are currently quoting rates, every 1% increase in the value of the RMB means that the gross profit of orders priced in US dollars decreases by approximately 1 percentage point. Therefore, it is recommended that orders scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter be managed using a combination of “rate flexibility + exchange rate adjustment clauses + hedging strategies”.
III. The SCFI index reached 3679.58 points, showing an increase for two consecutive weeks. The indices in the European and Mediterranean regions have increased, while those in the United States have slightly decreased.
Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange shows that as of October 16, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 3,679.58 points, an increase of 15.47 points from the previous period. This represents a slight upward trend for two consecutive weeks. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) reached 1,922.64 points, representing a 0.5% increase. Looking at individual routes, the price for 40-foot containers on the Western United States route decreased by 0.78%, while on the Eastern United States route, prices dropped by 1.13%. On the European route, prices increased by 2.66%, and on the Mediterranean route, prices rose by 8.1%. According to media reports, the European route is about to enter a new year-long contract period, and several shipping companies plan to increase prices on this route by $400 to $600 per 40-foot container next week. Meanwhile, prices on the American route have declined due to the increased number of extra-budgetary ships and the relaxation of restrictions on navigation through the Panama Canal. For factories that need to ship goods in the fourth quarter, it is advisable to place orders before the price increases take effect. There is no need to rush to ship goods in the short term.
| indicators | latest value | change |
|---|---|---|
| Renminbi Interbank Rate (October 16) | 6.7220 | The rate of increase is 33 basis points |
| The RMB onshore exchange rate closed at… | 6.6868 | Up 48 basis points |
| SCFI Composite Index | 3679.58 points | Up 15.47 points |
| CCFI Composite Index | 1922.64 points | Up 0.5% |
4. Common questions
1. Will the export of photovoltaic modules be restricted by the new regulations?
Currently, there are no impacts. Notice number 48 pertains to technology exports. It is clearly stated that products manufactured using related technologies are not subject to this regulation. Only in cases where there is a transfer of technology ownership, authorization for the use of technology in foreign countries, or the export of entire equipment does it require prior registration before the export process begins.
2. The intermediate price has risen to 6.72. Do I still need to lock in the exchange rate during the fourth quarter?
It is recommended to continue this process. The intermediate price has increased by 110 basis points this week, and the direction of the price rise remains positive. For US dollar orders that are to be delivered in the fourth quarter, forward exchange arrangements can be made based on a certain percentage of the order amount (for example, half). This approach helps to stabilize the gross profit, compared to making a one-time settlement on the delivery date.
3. Will the freight rates on the European route actually increase next week?
The shipping company has a plan to increase prices, but there is uncertainty regarding the actual extent of price increases given the increased capacity. For factories, it is recommended to book cargo space and determine freight rates before the end of October. Do not risk further price increases, nor wait for prices to fall.
For the factories that export goods, there are three important numbers to keep in mind on October 17th: 40 new items under technical export control that require public comment, the intermediate price of 6.7220, and the SCFI level of 3679.58 points. It’s necessary to check these numbers carefully when determining business boundaries, pricing terms, and booking schedules. If you want to verify whether your products are subject to export control regulations, please contact Qihang Zhilian at 180-0327-6609.
Qihang Zhilian Foreign Trade Research Institute
