Core conclusions:On October 14th, the State Council Information Office announced that in the first three quarters of 2026, China’s goods trade imports and exports reached 39.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year. Of this, exports amounted to 23.2 trillion yuan, a growth of 16.4%, while imports reached 16.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.3%. In September alone, imports and exports totaled 5.16 trillion yuan, breaking through the 5 trillion yuan mark for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5%. On the same day, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 6.7249, an increase of 49 basis points. The 140th Canton Fair conference will take place in Guangzhou on October 15th.
1. In the first three quarters, the figure reached 39.94 trillion yuan, marking the highest growth rate in nearly five years.
According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports totaled 39.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.8% compared to the same period last year. Looking at each quarter separately, there was a growth of 15.3% in the first quarter, 18.3% in the second quarter, and 22.3% in the third quarter. The quarterly growth rates continued to rise from one quarter to another. Looking at individual months, there was continuous double-digit growth for six consecutive months. In September, imports and exports reached 5.16 trillion yuan, exceeding 5 trillion yuan for the first time in a single month. This represents an increase of 27.5% compared to the same period last year. Of this amount, exports amounted to 3.03 trillion yuan, representing a growth of 29.6%, while imports reached 2.13 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.6%. Wang Jun, the deputy director of General Administration of Customs of China, stated at the press conference that the growth rate of foreign trade in the first three quarters was the fastest among those of the same period in the past five years. Data source:General Administration of Customs of China Press Conference Transcript.
It is worth noting that imports have been growing at a rate of over 20% for seven consecutive months. In September, imports exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time. During the first three quarters, the growth rate of imports was 5.9 percentage points higher than that of exports. For factories engaged in processing activities, this means two things: first, the cost of imported raw materials and equipment is increasing; second, domestic demand is becoming more active again.
II. Kinetic Energy: The equipment manufacturing industry contributed nearly 90% of the total export growth. The export volume of integrated circuits increased by 99.1%.
Structurally, the equipment manufacturing industry accounted for nearly 90% of the total export growth. Intermediate goods accounted for more than half of the total export value. Looking at individual products, the export of integrated circuits increased by 99.1% in the first three quarters; the exports of green products such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and wind turbine components increased by 72.3%, 36.4%, and 22.4%, respectively. Products like industrial robots, electronic components, computer parts, and electrical equipment had total imports and exports exceeding 10 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.9%. This contributed significantly to the overall import and export growth, by 11.3 percentage points.
The situation at the brand level is also changing: the export volume of domestic brands has increased by 26.7%, accounting for 24.8% of total exports. This represents a 2 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year. These figures have significant implications for factories that only engage in OEM services: even with the same amount of products being shipped, there is more room for premium pricing and greater stability in retaining customers for their products.
III. Markets: Growth in the ASEAN region was 22.7%, in the EU was 8.4%, and in the United States was 4.1%.
In the first three quarters, China’s trade with more than 180 countries and regions around the world increased. Total imports and exports to free trade partners reached 19.55 trillion yuan, a growth of 30%, accounting for over 70% of the total foreign trade volume. Imports and exports to other APEC economies amounted to 24.07 trillion yuan, representing a growth of 23.9%. Among major markets, imports and exports to ASEAN reached 6.84 trillion yuan, a growth of 22.7%; to the EU, it was 4.78 trillion yuan, a growth of 8.4%; and to the United States, it was 3.18 trillion yuan, a growth of 4.1%.
When we look at these three regions’ growth rates together, it’s clear what the direction of increase is: ASEAN has a relatively high growth rate, the EU shows stable growth, and the United States is recovering, but its absolute growth rate is still low. There are also changes within each region: the central region saw an import and export growth of 20.5%, while the western region experienced a growth of 25.7%. Additionally, the proportion of imports and exports related to road transportation increased by 3.4 percentage points.
IV. Exchange Rate: On October 14, the central rate was 6.7249, an increase of 49 basis points.
The China Foreign Exchange Trade System announced on October 14 that the average exchange rate was 1 US dollar equal to 6.7249 RMB. This represents a rise of 49 basis points compared to the previous day’s rate of 6.7298 RMB per US dollar. On the same day, the average exchange rates for other currencies were as follows: 1 euro equals 7.5165 RMB, 100 yen equals 4.2412 RMB, 1 pound equals 8.8956 RMB, 1 Hong Kong dollar equals 0.85688 RMB. Additionally, 1 RMB equals 12.5307 Russian rubles, 0.60815 Malaysian ringgits, 0.54743 UAE dirhams, and 2.7341 Mexican pesos. Source:China Currency Network's Interbank Rate Announcement.
The usefulness of saving this table lies in its use for pricing calculations. Take Saudi Arabia as an example: 1 Chinese yuan is equivalent to 0.55975 rials. This means that the revenue in Chinese yuan for each order worth 10,000 US dollars will differ compared to three months ago. It’s more convenient to specify the conversion rate and its validity period on the quotation sheet, rather than negotiating the exchange rate on a whim during a phone call.
V. Policies and Exhibitions: In 2027, the quota for fertilizer imports is set at 13.65 million tons. The Canton Fair exhibition will begin today.
On October 14th, the Ministry of Commerce announced that the total import quota for fertilizers for the year 2027 would be 13.65 million tons. Of this, 3.3 million tons will be allocated for urea, 6.9 million tons for diammonium phosphate, and 3.45 million tons for compound fertilizers. The allocation will be made on a first-come, first-served basis. Any company that is registered with the industrial and commercial authorities and whose business scope includes the production of these fertilizers can apply for the quota.
The 140th Canton Fair exhibition was held in three sessions from October 15th to November 4th in Guangzhou. This year marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of Canton Fair. The total exhibition area is approximately 1.55 million square meters. There were 32,000 companies participating in the exhibition. As of October 9th, over 196 countries and regions had registered with more than 210,000 buyers. The first session, which lasted from October 15th to 19th, focused on advanced manufacturing. The exhibition area was 520,000 square meters, with more than 25,000 booths and over 12,000 companies participating. The exhibition covered five major categories: electronic appliances, industrial automation, lighting and electrical equipment, hardware tools, new energy vehicles, and smart transportation technologies.
| matters | key figures | What the factory needs to do |
|---|---|---|
| Imports and exports in the first three quarters | 39.94 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.8%; in September alone, it reached 5.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.5%. | Reorder the priority of orders received in the fourth quarter based on the growth rate of each target market. |
| Growth rate of key markets | ASEAN: +22.7%, EU: +8.4%, United States: +4.1% | The production capacity and material supplies for ASEAN orders have been secured in advance. |
| central parity of the RMB | 1 dollar is equivalent to 6.7249 yuan, an increase of 49 basis points | The quotation document specifies the basis for conversion and the validity period. |
| Fertilizer import quota for the year 2027 | Total amount: 13.65 million tons. First come, first served. | Those who are eligible can submit applications during the eligible period. |
| The 140th QHG 0Q | From October 15th to November 4th, 32,000 companies participated. | Select the shipping date based on the subject of the item, and determine the list of buyers in advance. |
6. Common questions
After the data for the first three quarters is available, how should orders in the fourth quarter be adjusted?
First, conduct a market analysis and group customers based on their regions. Then, indicate the order growth rate and payment terms for each region. In the first three quarters, growth in ASEAN was 22.7%, while growth in the United States was 4.1%. The same production capacity yields different returns in different regions. After sorting the data, evaluate whether our capabilities and certifications meet the requirements of ASEAN markets. If they do, then allocate next year’s development budget towards those areas.
2. If the growth rate of imports is faster than that of exports, is this a positive or negative situation for export-oriented factories?
It can be viewed from two perspectives. The import growth rate has exceeded 20% for seven consecutive months, indicating that domestic demand is recovering. Companies engaged in domestic trade or those with plans to do so have room for growth. At the same time, the costs of raw materials, equipment, and components imported are increasing, which means that the cost base for export pricing will also rise. It is recommended to keep track of the import prices of key raw materials on a monthly basis. When setting quotes, it is advisable to use the average price from the previous quarter plus any increases, rather than relying on last year’s cost data.
3. If Canton Fair didn’t manage to secure a booth, what other options are there?
There are three things that can be done immediately. First, use the pre-registered list of buyers and the online exhibition platform to schedule meetings with potential buyers, and arrange the meeting locations near the exhibition halls. Second, purchase tickets to enter the exhibition hall, and spend two days observing the levels of exhibits and their pricing ranges within the same genre, thereby establishing a reference point for your own decisions. Third, prepare materials in Spanish, Arabic, and Russian. On-site buyers will compare prices using their mobile phones, and booths with incomplete information in these languages will be skipped over.
For the factories that export goods, the results for the first three quarters show a total of 39.94 trillion yuan in exports, an increase of 18.8%. This indicates that external demand continues to grow. However, the growth is mainly directed towards ASEAN and other trading partners. Focusing on market analysis, exchange rate arrangements, and identifying potential buyers at trade fairs is more practical than waiting for any uniform announcements from authorities.
Qihang Zhilian Foreign Trade Research Institute·Let China's intelligent manufacturing industry set sail to sea·Tel: 180-0327-6609
