Core conclusions:On October 13, the Ministry of Commerce released data on service trade from January to August. The total import and export volume reached 5.0703 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year. Exports amounted to 1.9996 trillion yuan, a growth of 14.8%. The deficit in service trade stood at 1.0709 trillion yuan, a reduction of 145.12 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. On the same day, the central rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 6.7298, an increase of 15 basis points. The Settlement Freight Index for European routes was reported as 2,264.82 points, a decrease of 6.1%. For Western American routes, the index was reported at 4,700.23 points, an increase of 11.4%. The 140th Canton Fair conference opened in Guangzhou on October 15.
1. Service trade: The two categories of exports related to transportation and tourism accounted for nearly 50% of the total exports.
The person in charge of the Department of Service Trade of the Ministry of Commerce reported on October 13 that, from January to August 2026, China's total service imports and exports amounted to 5,070.16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Among these, exports reached 1,999.61 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8%, while imports reached 3,070.55 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8%. The trade deficit in service goods was 1,070.94 billion yuan, a reduction of 145.12 billion yuan compared to the previous year.
In terms of structure, transportation services accounted for 420.26 billion yuan in exports, representing a growth of 28.2%. They contributed 35.8% to the overall growth in service exports. Travel services, on the other hand, accounted for 275.17 billion yuan in exports, with a growth rate of 15.3%. They accounted for 14.1% of the total service exports. Together, these two sectors accounted for nearly 50% of the total service exports. Knowledge-intensive services, with an export value of 2231.4 billion yuan, saw a growth of 6.6%. They accounted for 44% of the total service exports. Among these, exports amounted to 1074.47 billion yuan, representing a growth of 10.9%. They accounted for 53.7% of the total service exports.
The growth rate has declined: In the first half of the year, the growth rate of services exports was 8.3%, but in the first eight months, it dropped to 7.9%. The growth rate of exports remains higher than that of imports, and the trade deficit continues to narrow. For manufacturers, this means that the price elasticity of supporting services such as cross-border transportation and compliance matters is changing. It’s better to list logistics costs separately and review them quarterly, rather than including freight costs within the product price. This approach helps to reduce fluctuations in prices.
II. Exchange Rate: On October 13, the central rate was 6.7298, representing a rise of 15 basis points.
The China Foreign Exchange Trade System announced on October 13 that the central exchange rate for the RMB was 6.7298 USD per RMB. This represents a decrease of 15 basis points compared to the previous day’s rate of 6.7313 USD per RMB. Other currencies with their central exchange rates were as follows: 1 Euro = 7.4935 RMB, 100 Japanese Yens = 4.2411 RMB, 1 British Pound = 8.8707 RMB, 1 Hong Kong Dollar = 0.85753 RMB. Additionally, 1 RMB was equivalent to 12.5353 Russian Rubles, 0.60789 Malaysian Ringgits, 0.54714 UAE Dirhams, and 2.7167 Mexican Pesos.
For factories that operate in small-language markets, this table is more useful than the US dollar mid-price. Take the Russian ruble as an example: 1 Chinese yuan equals 12.5353 rubles. The exchange rate used in the quotation directly affects the gross profit. It’s recommended to specify the conversion basis and validity period on the quotation sheet. By making these rules part of the document terms, it’s easier to manage compared to making oral agreements via emails.
III. Freight rates: The settlement index for routes to Europe decreased by 6.1%, while those to the United States and Western Europe increased by 11.4%.
Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange shows that as of October 12, 2026, the SCFI for European routes stood at 2264.82 points, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the previous period. Meanwhile, the SCFI for Western American routes reached 4700.23 points, an increase of 11.4% over the previous period. This trend is not entirely consistent with the SCFI level on October 9, which was 3664.11 points, representing an increase of 1.81 points. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the different nature of the two indices: the SCFI reflects actual settlement prices, while the SCFI reflects booking quotes. Therefore, these two indices cannot be used interchangeably.
The difference in the directions of these two lines can be reflected in production scheduling: there is a differentiation between orders sent to Europe and those sent to the United States. This indicates that some shipping companies are actively competing for orders in Europe, while they still have room to maintain prices in the US market. Factories with shipment plans for the fourth quarter should arrange for the confirmation of shipping arrangements for European orders to occur 3 to 4 weeks before the actual shipment. Additionally, it’s important to specify in the contract terms who will be responsible for any fluctuations in freight rates exceeding 10%.
IV. Trade Relief Measures: The Final Ruling on the Third Anti-dumping and Countervailing Review of Potassium Phosphate
According to a report published on October 13 by the China Trade Relief Information Network, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued an announcement on October 5. It concluded the third anti-dumping review by issuing a final ruling on potassium phosphates imported from China. If the current anti-dumping measures are abolished, Chinese-related products will continue to face a dumping margin of 95.40%. Similarly, a final ruling was made in relation to countervailing duties, determining that if the current measures are removed, countervailing duties will remain at a rate of 109.11%.
This is a final ruling following the sunset review process, not a new case being filed. There are only two possible outcomes: to uphold the current decision or to overturn it. If the decision is upheld, it means that the products involved will continue to be subject to high tariffs related to anti-dumping and countervailing duties when exported to the United States during the foreseeable future. Factories that produce phosphorus chemicals, water treatment agents, and compound fertilizer raw materials must ensure that the US customs codes of their products fall within the scope of the investigation. They also need to verify that the routes used for export are compliant with relevant regulations.
V. Exhibition: The 140th Canton Fair exhibition will open on October 15th
The 140th Canton Fair exhibition will be held in three sessions from October 15th to November 4th in Guangzhou. This year marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of Canton Fair. The total exhibition area is approximately 1.55 million square meters, with 32,000 companies participating in the exhibition. Among them, more than 11,000 companies are specialized and innovative enterprises or champions in their respective fields. As of October 9th, over 210,000 buyers from 196 countries and regions have registered for the exhibition. Professional buyers account for nearly 80% of the registered participants. Additionally, 170 leading purchasing companies have confirmed their participation in the exhibition. In terms of ticket registration, Guangzhou has set up 70 registration points and 628 windows at airports, high-speed railway stations, exhibition venues, and designated hotels. Overseas buyers can obtain their tickets within about 30 seconds after verifying their passports.
The changes on one side of the exhibition hall are also worth noting: For the first time in this edition, full-floor navigation and AR information display for each booth have been implemented. The navigation accuracy is within 1 meter, covering more than 75,000 booths. Additionally, 22 intelligent application scenarios and 16 AI-based features have been introduced. Buyers can compare prices more quickly on-site. If quotation sheets and specifications are still in paper form, they will be at a disadvantage during on-site comparisons.
| matters | key figures | What the factory needs to do |
|---|---|---|
| Service Trade from January to August | The total amount is 5,070.16 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9%. The trade deficit has decreased by 1,451.2 billion yuan. | Separate logistics and fulfillment costs from the overall quotation, and review them quarterly. |
| Renminbi Interbank Rate (October 13) | 1 dollar is equivalent to 6.7298 yuan, an increase of 15 basis points | The quotation specifies the basis for calculation and a validity period of 30 days. |
| Settlement freight index (December 10) | Europe route: 2264.82 points, down 6.1%; Americas-West route: 4700.23 points, up 11.4% | The confirmation of seats on the European route is done 3 to 4 weeks in advance. |
| Potassium phosphate double anti-sunset final ruling | Dumping margin: 95.40%; Subsidy rate: 109.11% | Check whether the US customs code falls within the scope of the case. |
| The 140th QHG 0Q | From October 15th to November 4th; 32,000 enterprises and 210,000 buyers have registered in advance. | Select the date based on the subject matter. Finalize the list of buyers before the event starts. |
6. Common questions
1. What is the use of trade in services data for factories that engage in goods exports?
The usefulness of this information lies in helping to understand the cost structure. In the previous eight months, transportation services have seen a growth of 28.2%, with a contribution rate of 35.8%. This indicates that the scale of cross-border transportation is expanding rapidly, and pricing methods are also changing accordingly. Factories can request freight forwarders to provide detailed quotes for individual routes and container types, breaking down costs such as freight, additional fees, and storage charges separately, rather than accepting a lump-sum price. Such data doesn’t help you negotiate lower prices, but it does allow you to clarify each cost item clearly.
2. The upward adjustment of the RMB interbank rate could be a sign of further appreciation?
A change of just 15 basis points in a single day is not sufficient to determine the trend. The mid-price serves as a reference price for trading on that day, and it is influenced by various factors such as the US dollar index, exchange demand, and policy intentions. Actions that are beneficial for factories are fairly simple: quotes should specify the conversion basis and validity period; orders with large amounts of money should use forward contracts to lock in costs; and exchange rate terms should be included in the contract, rather than being left as attachments in emails.
3. If Canton Fair couldn’t get a stall, what else can they do?
There are three things that can be done. First, use the pre-registered list of buyers and the online exhibition platform to arrange meetings with potential buyers. Choose hotels or cafes near the exhibition hall as the meeting locations. Second, purchase tickets to enter the exhibition. Spend two days observing the quality of exhibits and their pricing ranges, so that you can establish a benchmark for your own pricing decisions. Third, prepare samples and certification documents in advance. Only conduct demonstrations and make appointments on-site; avoid setting aggressive prices without proper consideration.
For the factories that have started exporting, all the information from mid-October indicates one thing: it’s more practical to break down the costs listed in the quotes and to obtain all necessary compliance documents in advance, rather than waiting for some vague announcement of good news.
Qihang Zhilian Foreign Trade Research Institute·Let China's intelligent manufacturing industry set sail to sea·Tel: 180-0327-6609
