Core conclusions:On October 9, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce issued a joint statement on the second regular meeting of the China-EU Trade and Investment Consultation Mechanism. The two sides reached consensus on 16 outcomes and agreed to hold the third regular meeting in March 2027; on the same day, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.7330, which was higher than the previous trading day. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was reported at 3,664.11 points, up 1.81 points from the previous period. One is the annual institutional arrangement, and the other are the current day's figures that can be directly written into the quotation.
1. The Second Regular Meeting of the China-EU Consultation Mechanism: 16 Consensus Points on Outcome
From October 8 to 9, Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao and European Commission Trade and Economic Security Commissioner Shevcovic co-chaired the second regular meeting of the China-EU Trade and Investment Consultation Mechanism in Beijing. On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce issued a joint statement. The list formed a consensus on 16 specific results focusing on trade and investment balance, export controls, intellectual property rights, and WTO reform. Among them, there are 10 items on trade and investment balance, which are the areas with the most concentrated consensus. In terms of export control, China has expressed its willingness to continue to facilitate the approval of export licenses for rare earths and permanent magnets to Europe through the "Green Channel" mechanism. The EU will continue to work with member states to facilitate the resolution of key licensing cases to China in the dual-use field. In terms of mechanism arrangements, the two sides agreed to hold the third regular meeting in March 2027, and hold a ministerial-level video conference in January 2027 before that.
| field | Consensus on outcome | Meaning for the factory |
|---|---|---|
| Trade and investment balance | 10 items, the largest number | The two sides will continue to explore the possibility of reducing tariffs on some commodities under the framework of WTO rules and reach an understanding on hybrid vehicle trade |
| export control | Convenience arrangements containing rare earth and permanent magnets | The approval of export licenses to Europe follows the "green channel", and the approval pace is expected to be more stable |
| mechanism rhythm | The third regular meeting will be held in March 2027 | There will be a ministerial-level video conference in January 2027, and the middle window period will mainly focus on observation |
What needs to be reminded is that this list is a directional consensus, and specific administrative procedures still have to be followed for the implementation of a certain tax number or a certain certification. Factories exporting to Europe can adjust their market weight for next year accordingly, but this year's quotation cannot be calculated as "tax reduction has occurred".
2. The central bank systematically stated its exchange rate position, with the median parity quoted at 6.7330
According to Beijing Daily and other media reports, on October 8, the People's Bank of China issued a policy position document on the RMB exchange rate, clearly insisting that the market play a decisive role in the formation of the exchange rate, does not preset the exchange rate target level, and focuses on preventing short-term sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. On October 9, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar authorized by China Foreign Exchange Trading Center was 6.7330 yuan, an increase of 37 basis points from the previous trading day; according to Wind data, both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates reached around 6.693 at 16:00 that day. Since the beginning of this year, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by about 4.21%.
The direct impact on exporting enterprises is the standard of settlement of foreign exchange rather than the standard of quotation: the median price is the conversion basis for customs declaration and tax calculation, and the actual settlement of foreign exchange by banks is based on the quoted price. In the stage where the middle price and the onshore price strengthen simultaneously, the exchange rate terms of the quotation are more important than before. It is recommended to uniformly state the validity period of the quotation is 15 to 30 days and convert it according to the middle price on the signing date.
3. Freight rates: SCFI stopped falling at 3,664.11 points, and the European line is still falling
According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of October 9, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) reported 3,664.11 points, up 1.81 points from the previous period; China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) reported 1,912.38 points, down 0.6% from the previous period. In terms of routes, the European route was US$2199/TEU, down 4.9% month-on-month; the Mediterranean route was US$2996/TEU, down 2.3%; the U.S. West was US$7578/FEU, up 1.5%, and the U.S. East was US$10528/FEU, up 0.3%. The U.S. route has shown a peak and sideways pattern. The Drewry World Container Index, a third-party organization, reported US$4,351/40 feet on October 8, down 2% year-on-week.
| indicators | Latest value (October 9) | change |
|---|---|---|
| SCFI Composite Index | 3664.11 points | It rose 1.81 points from the previous period |
| CCFI Composite Index | 1912.38 points | 0.6% decrease from the previous period |
| European Line (SCFI sub-route) | US$2199/TEU | Down 4.9% |
| US West (SCFI sub-route) | US$7578/FEU | Up 1.5% |
What is more noteworthy is the pace of the return of the Red Sea: Premier Alliance's Southeast Asia-Northern Europe FE1 line will test sail to Suez on October 17, making the alliance's first return since it was diverted to the Cape of Good Hope in January 2024; another shipping company has arranged for the Asia-Mediterranean line to be diverted to Suez in late October. The return of capacity and the delivery of new ships in the fourth quarter make it difficult for European freight rates to increase in the short term. Factories in the European market can seize this window to lock cabins, but at the same time, they must calculate the superimposed cost of green surcharges and geographical premiums, and not just focus on the unit price of sea freight.
4. Three actions on the same day
- For those in the European market, turn the consensus list into an observation list:Focus on three time points-the ministerial video conference in January 2027, the third regular meeting in March 2027, and the price commitment and review process node of the electric vehicle countervailing case, putting the market weight of orders from Europe on the watch list, rather than immediately adjusting the price.
- Quotations are uniformly plus exchange rate and validity terms:During the period when the median price of 6.7330 and the onshore price of 6.693 both strengthened, the quotation stated that "converted based on the median price on the signing date, valid for 15 to 30 days, and the fluctuations exceed the agreed range shall be negotiated by both parties."
- Reservations are arranged according to the European Line drop-back window:The European line's US$2199/TEU has dropped continuously. The fourth-quarter shipping plan can book two weeks in advance to lock in low-cost shipping spaces, and at the same time, it includes the shortened voyage (about 10 to 14 days) brought by the resumption of flights in the Red Sea into the delivery period commitment.
5. Common questions
1. Among the 16 China-EU Consensus on Achievements, which one is most practical for factories making European orders?
In the short term, it is an export control and licensing facilitation arrangement, which is related to the approval pace of upstream materials such as rare earths and permanent magnets, and will affect the delivery cycles of complete machines and parts manufacturers along the supply chain; in the medium term, it is "continuing to explore the possibility of reducing tariffs on some goods under the framework of WTO rules." If this item is implemented in 2027, it will truly change the cost structure. What needs to be done now is to convert the consensus list into an observation list and review it quarterly.
2. Why are the median price of 6.7330 and the land price of 6.693 different? Which one should I use for the quotation?
The median price is the benchmark price published daily by China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, and the onshore price is the spot price formed by market transactions. The two are allowed to deviate. Customs declaration tax calculation and tariff conversion use the median price, and the actual foreign exchange collection and settlement of foreign exchange are based on the bank quoted price. It is recommended to use the middle price and indicate the validity period for quotation calculation to avoid allowing exchange rate fluctuations to be included in the fixed price.
3. SCFI rose by 1.81 points. Does this mean that freight rates are about to rebound?
The weekly rise of 1.81 points belongs to a sideways level fluctuation. It is more meaningful to look at the structure: the European line is still falling and the US line is peaking sideways, indicating that the upward driving force comes from the seasonal support of the US line rather than a comprehensive rebound. The resumption of flights in the Red Sea is releasing capacity, and freight rates in the fourth quarter are more likely to be differentiated rather than general increases. Booking strategies should be formulated separately by route.
For factories engaged in the European market and the U.S. line, these three numbers on October 9 should be viewed together: 16 consensuses determine next year's market weight, 6.7330 determines this month's quotation conversion, and 3,664.11 points determine this quarter's logistics cost assumptions.
