Core conclusions:The reform of the EU Customs Code has cleared tariff exemptions for imported packages below 150 euros. Each item is superimposed with a temporary tariff of 3 euros and a customs processing fee of 2 euros. The benchmark burden for a single item is about 5 euros. It will be levied at the latest on November 1, 2026 and will not be refunded; the U.S. Department of Commerce announced on October 7 that the trade deficit in goods in August expanded to US$105.6 billion, a record high since the beginning of 2025. One determines the cost structure of cross-border parcels, and the other determines the observation tone that determines U.S. line orders in the fourth quarter.
1. EU duty-free clearing of low-value parcels: What has been changed
Under the old rules, imported packages below 150 euros were exempt from customs duties and only paid value-added tax. This is the tax base on which the global cross-border small package direct mail model depends. The new round of European Customs Code (UCC) reform has completely abolished this exemption: according to documents published by the European Council and EUR-Lex, a temporary tariff of 3 euros will be imposed on each item according to category; the authorization regulations announced by the European Commission on September 21, 2026 further clarify that each item of goods will be subject to a customs processing fee of 2 euros, which can be reduced to 0.50 euros for combined declaration using a warehouse. The fee will be levied no later than November 1, 2026 and will not be refunded. After the two items are superimposed, the benchmark tax burden on a single package is about 5 euros.
| costs | amount | description |
|---|---|---|
| temporary tariff | 3 euros/piece | Additional taxes are levied according to product category, replacing the duty-free rule below 150 euros |
| Customs processing fee | 2 euros/piece | The authorization regulations of September 21, 2026 clarify that consolidated declarations of warehousing can be reduced to 0.50 euros/piece |
| levy time | November 1, 2026 at the latest | The fee is non-refundable, and the benchmark burden for a single piece is approximately 5 euros after being superimposed on the 3 euros tariff. |
What is more worth remembering than the cost is the supporting "Deemed Importer" system: Amazon, Temu, SHEIN, AliExpress and other platforms are directly defined as importers, and must withhold value-added tax and tariffs during the settlement process, and bear the ultimate responsibility for the authenticity of declarations and product compliance; the customs systems of member states will gradually be integrated into a unified central digital hub to achieve one-time declaration across Europe. Compliance responsibilities move from individual sellers to the platform, and the platform will inevitably tighten seller access and declaration requirements in reverse.
The second and third types of enterprises will be affected in different directions
The first category is sellers who rely on small package direct shipping. The benchmark burden of 5 euros for a single item almost directly erases profits for goods within 20 euros. This type of model must recalculate DDP performance costs or shift to overseas warehouses and local performance. The second category is sellers who have already deployed overseas warehouses and semi-custody in the EU. The cost of small package competitors has increased, but instead it is a share window. The third category is traditional B2B large-cargo export factories. On the surface, they are not directly related, but the channel structure will change accordingly: small and medium-sized buyers in Europe have shifted from "replenishing scattered packages" to "purchasing goods from whole containers + local warehouses", and the requirements for the factory have increased.
October is the compliance window in the official EU statement: Before the levy on November 1, companies operating in the EU market must complete three things-calculate the profits of the main SKUs under the new tax burden, and confirm the settlement and withholding with the platform. Technical docking arrangements require early implementation by authorized representatives within the EU.
3. How to read the U.S. cargo deficit of US$105.6 billion in August
Data released by the Census Bureau of the U.S. Department of Commerce on October 7 showed that the trade deficit in goods widened by 13.7% month-on-month to US$105.6 billion in August, higher than market expectations of US$102.1 billion, the largest monthly deficit since the beginning of 2025; Imports increased by 4.3% to a historical record of US$420.8 billion, and exports increased by 1.4% to US$315.2 billion, of which merchandise exports to China fell by 12.5% month-on-month. The main driving force for the widening deficit is that the import side remains strong, pointing to the continuation of inventory replenishment and import grabbing.
There are two meanings for factories: First, the chassis of U.S. line orders in the fourth quarter still exists, and there is no need to shrink production scheduling as a whole because individual customers wait and see; second, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative previously stated that the results of the "overcapacity" 301 survey will be announced in the next few weeks, involving 16 economies including China. This is the next variable that may change the cost structure of the U.S. line. line factories must put this time into the production scheduling and quotation assumptions in the fourth quarter.
4. Same-day exchange rate and three actions
Data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center showed that the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.7367 on October 8, a 16 basis point revision from the previous trading day; the onshore RMB closed at 6.7014 at 16:30, up 39 basis points from the previous trading day. The trend of the middle price and the onshore price is differentiated, with obvious short-term range fluctuations. The suggested validity period of export quotations is still 15 to 30 days, and large orders can be locked in batches.
- For direct mail of small packages to the EU, recalculate the price within this week:The hands-on price of each SKU will be recalculated based on "Euro 3 tariff + Euro 2 processing fee" plus withholding value-added tax, and the loss SKUs will complete the price increase or transfer before November 1.
- Those who place orders for the U.S. line shall include the 301 survey results into the production scheduling plan on a daily basis:The plan will prepare at least three scenarios, the current tax burden, new category restrictions, and the adjusted production capacity allocation of major market combinations.
- Unified quotation plus exchange rate terms:During the differentiation stage of the middle price and the onshore price, the quotation indicates that the price will be converted according to the middle price on the signing date. When the fluctuation exceeds the agreed range, both parties will negotiate the price adjustment.
5. Common questions
1. The new EU regulations only target cross-border e-commerce. Should the export of large B2B goods be regulated?
The direct tax burden is not involved, but the indirect impact should be focused on: after the cost of small packages rises, the replenishment method of small and medium-sized European buyers will move to the entire container and local warehouse, and the order structure will change from high-frequency small orders to low-frequency large orders, which will affect the factory. Accounting period, inventory and delivery commitments are all new requirements. It is recommended to confirm with old European customers in advance the changes in the procurement plan for the fourth quarter.
2. The U.S. deficit hit a new high in August. Does it mean that orders will be stronger in the fourth quarter?
You cannot simply draw an equal sign. The widening deficit reflects the strong total import volume, but structural variables (301 survey results, possible category restrictions) will change the allocation method at any time. The correct way to read it is: the order base is present, but there must be room for adjustment for policy changes in quotations and delivery commitments, and do not lock up production capacity according to a single scenario.
3. Why are the median price of 6.7367 and the onshore price of 6.7014 inconsistent? Which one shall prevail?
The median price is the benchmark price announced by China Foreign Exchange Trading Center at 9:15 every day, and the onshore price is the spot price formed by market transactions. The two are allowed to deviate. For export enterprises, foreign exchange collection and settlement of foreign exchange are carried out according to the actual quoted price of the bank. It is recommended to use the middle price for quotation calculation and specify the validity period of the quotation to avoid allowing exchange rate fluctuations to be included in the fixed price.
For factories that place orders for cross-border parcels and U.S. lines, November 1 and the 301 survey result date are two nodes that must be written into the calendar in the fourth quarter: the former determines the cost formula for the EU parcel business, and the latter determines the U.S. line quotation Risk assumptions.
