On October 5, the most noteworthy thing for China's foreign trade factories was the two final rulings of sunset reviews of anti-dumping against China newly announced by the U.S. Department of Commerce in the Federal Register: the melamine anti-dumping order was extended with a maximum tax rate of 363.31%; Carbon steel plate (CTL steel plate) passed the fifth sunset review, with a maximum tax rate of 128.59%. On the same line, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) has initiated an expedited five-year review of China's container chassis double objection order. The review document will be published on October 2, the staff report will be made public on October 5, and comments will be submitted on October 13. According to the current schedule, this set of orders, which will continue from July 2021 to the present, is likely to be maintained for another five years. When looking at the three things together, there is only one conclusion: for categories covered by the U.S. Double Counter Order, do not expect orders to be automatically restored when they expire, and the factory's quotations and market combinations should be planned according to "long-term high tariffs."
1. For the two final rulings announced today, the key data are here
- Melamine (melamine raw material):The U.S. Department of Commerce's expedited second sunset review took effect on October 5, ruling that if the anti-dumping order issued on December 28, 2015 is revoked, dumping may continue or recur, with a weighted average dumping margin of up to 363.31%. This case went through a 120-day expedited procedure due to the respondent's failure to submit a substantive reply.
- Certain Cut-to-Length Carbon Steel Plate:The final ruling of the fifth sunset review on China and Russia came into effect on the same day, with a maximum tax rate of 128.59% for China and 185.00% for Russia. The order to China was released on October 21, 2003 and has lasted for 23 years. Applicants this time include American steel mills such as Cleveland Cliffs, Nucor, and SSAB.
- Container chassis (Chassis):The ITC has scheduled an expedited five-year (sunset) review in the Federal Register on October 2. The staff report will be made public on October 5, and written comments will be closed on October 13. The original trial ruled that the dumping margin of China manufacturers was 188.05%, and the subsidy rate was 44.32%. On August 4, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce's sunset review confirmed that the withdrawal of the order would lead to a dumping recurrence of up to 188.05%; if there are no accidents, orders will continue until around 2031.
All three documents can be verified through official U.S. channels: See the final verdict on melaminePublished in the Federal Register on October 5; See you at the final ruling of medium and heavy plateGovinfo full text on the same day; The container chassis review schedule can be found in ITC investigation numbers 701-TA-657 and 731-TA-1537.
2. What is a "sunset review" and why does it determine whether your order is still available?
The U.S. double objection law stipulates a review every five years: if the U.S. Department of Commerce and the ITC determine that dumping and damage may continue or recur after withdrawal, the order will be maintained for another five years. In the past half month, all three cases of melamine, medium and heavy plates, and container chassis have been followed by expedited procedures-the reasons are highly consistent: China producers and U.S. importers have not submitted substantive responding materials, but the U.S. industry has submitted them in full detail. The default outcome of the expedited process is to fix the tax rate for another five years, and the amount is often the highest in history.
The actual impact on the factory falls into two categories. The first category is the enterprises directly involved, such as exporters of melamine tableware and aminoplastic tableware: the 363.31% anti-dumping duty basically blocks regular U.S. channels. Customers will calculate the tax before placing an order, and no matter how beautiful the quotation is, it is useless. The other category is "edge-edge" enterprises: in the chassis case, even chassis subassemblies are subject to taxation, and the scope description of the steel plate case must also be checked word by word-under the same tariff code, specifications and processes are different, and whether they fall within the scope conclusions are completely different.
3. Four things the factory can do now
- First check whether you are in the range:Compare item by item by item with product tariff code and scope description. Uncertain, U.S. customers ask customs clearance banks for a historical case reference of scope rulings, rather than continuing to ship based on feeling.
- Responding to a lawsuit should be early:The sunset review is filed in June every year, and the response window is within one month after the case is filed. This time, all three cases were "no one responded to the lawsuit and passed urgently," which shows that many companies treat review notices as waste paper at the expense of suspending the tax rate for another five years.
- Advance adjustment of market mix:For categories with limited channels in the United States, development efforts are shifted to the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, usingcustoms dataIt is much more efficient to screen buyers who actually import in these markets by HS codes than to use hard work in U.S. channels.
- Focus on re-export compliance risks:Avoiding double anti-trafficking through transit through third countries is a key inspection direction for U.S. customs. Once it is found to be circumvented (EAPA investigation), freezing of goods and fines is much higher than abandoning a shipment of goods.
4. Other foreign trade developments within the week
Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce announced on October 3 that it would initiate an anti-dumping investigation against p-nitrotoluene originating in the European Union (previously reported). A number of new regulations that will come into effect on October 1 are being implemented: export perishable food, refrigerated container loadability inspection, EU steel smelting and casting country certificate, Indian hand tools BIS compulsory certification, etc., factories involved in related categories pay attention to checking documents. The release of the RMB central parity will be suspended during the National Day holiday and will resume around October 9. Remember to update the exchange rate assumptions after the holiday.
5. Common questions
1. My goods are not directly exported to the United States, but customers assemble them in Mexico and Vietnam and then sell them to the United States. Is it related to me?
related. The U.S. Evasion Investigation (EAPA) into dual-anti-scope products will trace back to the source of parts and semi-finished products. As long as U.S. customs determines that the substantial part comes from China's taxed industries, the entire supply chain may be subject to retroactive taxation. Before supplying goods to such customers, ask the other party to provide the customs clearance bank's written assessment of the compliance path.
2. Does the melamine tax rate of 363.31% mean that all China manufacturers have to pay this much?
This figure is the "upper limit of possible dumping margins" determined by the review. The actual implementation is based on the respective tax rates of enterprises, and the national unified tax rate is applicable to enterprises that have not responded to the lawsuit. But for new exporters and companies that have not responded to the lawsuit, the results are not much different: under high tax rates, American buyers will hardly place orders, so the top priority is not to study the details of the tax rate, but to adjust the market mix.
3. Is there another chance for the sunset review? Can I turn the tables?
Yes, there will be the next review in five years, and variables that will change the outcome may also appear in the middle, such as changes in domestic industrial production capacity in the United States and changes in the structure of applicants. If you want to overturn the situation, the prerequisite is that when the next case is filed, China manufacturers actively respond to the lawsuit, submit sales and price data, and use evidence to prove that dumping will not recur after the order is withdrawn. This time, no one responded to the lawsuit is a negative example.
