Three key changes today:First, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported to be 6.7399 on September 28, up 90 basis points from the previous trading day, setting a new high since February 2023 (Shanghai securities news), the profit account for US dollar orders will have to be recalculated; second, Sino-US economic and trade consultations have made progress, and the trade truce has been extended to January 10, 2027. Among the "30 billion to 30 billion" reciprocal tax reductions agreed by both parties, tariffs on about 90% of products will be reduced to the most-favored-nation rate level; Third, three new gates will come into effect at the same time from October 1-EU steel must declare the "smelting and casting country", the comprehensive tariff for the U.S. line will be increased by US$2000 to US$3000 per 40-foot container, and on September 29, 100% tariffs on U.S. drugs and import bans on 68 tax items have been implemented.
This article explains clearly the direct impact of everything on the factory and the actions to be taken in the order of "Exchange Rate-China and the United States-New Regulations-Trade Remedies-Logistics." All data are publicly released by customs, official media and institutions, and the source is attached to the main text.
1. Exchange rate: RMB rises to 6.7399, and export quotations will be counted first
On September 28, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.7399, up 90 basis points from the previous trading day and the highest since February 2023; on the same day, the euro was reported at 7.6564, the 100 yen was reported at 4.2685, and the British pound was reported at 8.9007 (China Foreign Exchange Trading Center data). As of September 23, the cumulative appreciation of the onshore RMB during the year was approximately 4.13%.
| currency | September 28 median price | Meaning of factory quotation |
|---|---|---|
| 1 US dollar | 6.7399 | USD order conversion income shrinks, long-term order suggestion and buyer agreement exchange rate linkage terms |
| 1 euro | 7.6564 | European customers 'purchasing costs are passively rising, so they can take the opportunity to push a package of quotations. |
| 100 yen | 4.2685 | Note the choice of settlement currency for Japanese yen orders |
| 1 pound | 8.9007 | Simultaneous review of UK line quotes |
Actions against the factory: If you have unsettled U.S. dollars on hand, you will settle in batches or consult bank forward instruments according to your own collection cycle; the new quotation changes the exchange rate window from "annual one-stop price" to "quarterly review." The semi-annual reports of hundreds of listed companies have stated that it is easy to make misjudgments by focusing only on the book exchange figures. The evaluation of currency lock depends on the combined effect of the three accounts of operation, accounting, and cash flow.
2. Sino-US economic and trade: The truce is extended to January 10. How to understand the tax reduction framework
According to the interpretation of the head of the U.S. Department of Commerce (reproduced in the interface news on September 28), the eighth round of China-US economic and trade consultations (September 20 - 23) reached three points: establishing a China-US Trade Council; reducing tariffs on imported products in a reciprocal manner.Tariffs on about 90% of each product will be reduced to the most-favored-nation rate level; China's tariffs on coal imports from the United States are included in this framework. At the same time, the trade truce period will be extended from November 10, 2026 to January 10, 2027, and the US Section 301 port fees for ships built in China will continue to be suspended-the industry previously estimated that once this fee is restored, the cost per container will increase by US$600 to US$900.
One thing to remind is: tax reductionThe specific tax number list and effective time have not yet been announced, and does not cover existing tariffs such as 301 and 232. What factories can do now is to compile the HS codes and origin information of their own export products into a book. Once the list is announced, they can compare whether they have benefited as soon as possible, rather than temporarily flipping through the documents.
3. Three new gates on October 1: steel declaration, US line price increase, and shipping schedule fluctuations
New EU steel regulations:According to EU Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1963, importers must declare the "smelting and casting country" of steel when customs declaration starting from October 1, using the smelting and casting country and furnace number stated in the steel mill material certificate (MTC) as the main evidence. Don't think that this will only affect steel mills-hardware, home appliances, fasteners, and kitchen utensils companies that use purchased billets and coils to process and export them to the EU will also have to pursue MTC from upstream steel mills. This communication cycle is not short, and the sooner it starts, the better. Supporting background: The EU's new steel regulations have cut duty-free imports by about 47%, and extra-quota tariffs have increased to 50%.
US freight rate:Starting from October 1, the U.S. line will implement a new round of comprehensive rate increase (GRI) of US$2000 to US$3000 per 40-foot container. Drewry's data on September 24 showed that the World Container Index was reported at US$4,468/40-foot container, including US$7838 from Shanghai-Los Angeles and US$10373 from Shanghai-New York;SCFI has risen for eight consecutive weeks, reporting 3686 points. The European line is softening (Shanghai-Genoa fell 5% to $3835 a week). The conclusion is simple:The U.S. line's "waiting for price cuts" is a negative return action. First lock the cabin space and then talk about price..
4. Compliance red lines that took effect on September 29
Two things happened today (00:00 on September 29, U.S. time) Effective, the "time point" is used to judge the application. The first is the second phase of Section 232 drug tariffs. Listed patented drugs and raw materials are subject to 100% ad valorem tax. The judgment criterion is the time when customs declaration is made for consumption; the second is the import ban on 68 tax items in Canada (including 53 alcohol tax items), which is marked by the time of arrival in Hong Kong. Goods imported before the deadline but not declared can still be treated at the original 50% tax rate. Factories engaged in re-export and container consolidation must check the arrival time and customs declaration time of their goods on a case-by-case basis.
5. Trade remedy intensive period: All four cases are increasing
- EU pea protein final ruling:It will come into effect on September 25, and the tax rate will be 40.5% to 67.1%. The price of food ingredients in Europe will need to be recalculated.
- EU alkaline battery registration:Starting from September 16, import customs registration of alkaline primary batteries in China will be launched (the registration period will be 9 months). If the final ruling is confirmed, the anti-dumping duty can be retroactively applied to all goods during the registration period, and the tax rate range is estimated to be 9% to 134%. Toys, remote controls, and supporting batteries for small household appliances are also within range.
- American graphite electrode:The preliminary countervailing ruling identified an emergency and retroactively imposed taxes until May 1, 2026, based on the fact that imports to the United States surged by 105.43% during the investigation period.
- U.S. 337 Survey:For the electric rocking chair and slide recliner mechanism (337-TA-1524), many seat companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have listed (United States Federal Register）。Export enterprises of the same category should immediately investigate whether they fall within the scope of the patent involved.
6. Pre-holiday logistics: tight shipping spaces, tight surcharges, and short windows
High-frequency data from Huachuang Securities on September 27 showed that as of September 26, the number of cargo container ships sent by China to the United States increased by 8.3% year-on-year in the half month, and the port container throughput increased by 4.4% year-on-year in the past four weeks. The rush for goods before the holiday has not subsided, and accommodation, trailers, and labor will still be tight. On the express delivery side, FedEx will impose a peak season demand surcharge on goods shipped from mainland China and Hong Kong, Macao and the United States starting from September 21 (US$0.91 per pound for Priority categories);UPS will impose it on September 27, starting from US$96.25 per piece for large packages. At the end of the shipping industry, Hapag-Lloyd has announced the golden week empty container extraction window (10 days in Shanghai and 14 days in Ningbo). The packing plan for the week before the long holiday must be moved forward as a whole, and the container day will be reversed according to the customs cut-off date.
7. Exhibition and digital trade window
The 5th Global Digital Trade Expo closed in Hangzhou on September 27:2008 companies participated in the exhibition, with more than 51,000 professional merchants, an increase of about 21% from the previous session. 996 AI companies participated in the exhibition, and 226 debuts and exhibitions were launched (Hangzhou net）。The 140th Canton Fairopened on October 15. Guangzhou announced new measures to apply for certificates: a total of 360 windows at the airport, high-speed rail station, 60 hotels and exhibition halls accept buyers 'certificates, and overseas customers can obtain certificates nearby upon arrival-this can be written into the invitation letter to overseas customers when inviting before the exhibition.
3 issues that factory owners are most concerned about
1. The RMB has risen to 6.74. Should we settle all the US dollars immediately?
Handle it according to the pace of payment collection, not according to emotion. 6.7399 The median price of, has reached a new high since February 2023, with a cumulative onshore appreciation of approximately 4.13% during the year; orders with a clear collection date can be settled in batches or locked in with bank forward instruments to avoid "all bets on one point."
2. If the US line is launched after October 1, will it lose money?
The key is to include GRI US$2000 to US$3000 per container in the quotation and confirm the real existence of the shipping space-the carrier has recently made rolling reservations or even cancelled the confirmed shipping space. It is more stable to synchronize quotations with buyers and negotiate heavily when necessary than silently swallowing costs.
3. Is the EU's steel "smelting and casting country" declaration related to factories that do not make steel?
As long as the product contains steel-hardware, fasteners, home appliance casings, kitchen utensils-and is exported to the European Union, it is necessary to request MTC from upstream steel mills that specifies the melting and casting country and furnace number. MTC will become a mandatory document from October 1, 2027, and it is appropriate to start communication now.
Conclusion and action recommendations
Today's information is summarized in one sentence:Good news (extension of the truce, tax reduction framework) still carries the word "waiting to be implemented", and bad news (GRI freight rates, new EU regulations, trade remedies) all have a clear effective date。The factory's action priority: first align the exchange rate with the quotation, then check the shipping space and the time points of goods in transit around October 1, and finally prepare the HS code and origin information and other tax reduction list. If you want to systematically evaluate your factory's going overseas, you can contact Qihang AI (telephone 180-0327-6609).
This article was written by Qihang Zhilian Trade Research Institute and released on September 29,2026; exchange rate data comes from China Foreign Exchange Trading Center (reported by Shanghai Securities News), and the rest of the data is public information before publication.
